Yeah Politics Yeah Politics - My Spin Homepage: October 2007

Tuesday, October 23, 2007 

Zakaria: Stalin, Mao And … Ahmadinejad?

At a meeting with reporters last week, President Bush said that "if you're interested in avoiding World War III, it seems like you ought to be interested in preventing [Iran] from having the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon." These were not the barbs of some neoconservative crank or sidelined politician looking for publicity. This was the president of the United States, invoking the specter of World War III if Iran gained even the knowledge needed to make a nuclear weapon.

The American discussion about Iran has lost all connection to reality. Norman Podhoretz, the neoconservative ideologist whom Bush has consulted on this topic, has written that Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is "like Hitler … a revolutionary whose objective is to overturn the going international system and to replace it in the fullness of time with a new order dominated by Iran and ruled by the religio-political culture of Islamofascism." For this staggering proposition Podhoretz provides not a scintilla of evidence.

Here is the reality. Iran has an economy the size of Finland's and an annual defense budget of around $4.8 billion. It has not invaded a country since the late 18th century. The United States has a GDP that is 68 times larger and defense expenditures that are 110 times greater. Israel and every Arab country (except Syria and Iraq) are quietly or actively allied against Iran. And yet we are to believe that Tehran is about to overturn the international system and replace it with an Islamo-fascist order? What planet are we on?

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My Spin

You sir are either discounting a great many facts or are oblivious to them

Iran the real story

There is considerable amount of speculation regarding Iran and what it’s motives are for acquiring nuclear technology. All of which are grounded in some truths, the degree of which is determined by your level of fear and gullibility. First Iran is and has been since 1979 a hostile nation dedicated to the notion of spreading global Islamic Revolution. They see it as their place to purge the non-believers and establish their “city on a hill”. Iran has not invaded another nation but instead has found itself on the defensive for much of the last 50 years. Iran has a massive “chip on it’s shoulder” and rightfully so, they have been manipulated and used for decades, all the benefit of Western Nations. Iran now has the power and capability to extracting it’s revenge, and you believe it won’t? Why not, Iran is no better or no worse than any other nation, Iran wants power in the same way all nations want power, Power is security. What makes Iran unique however is Iran wants security for it’s faith most of all.

There are multiple possibilities motivating Ahmadinejad to act in this fashion

1. Iran wants the West to invade it’s soil and seemingly topple their regime, thereby luring the West into a false sense of security and supremacy. In doing so the West (America) will greatly overextend it’s current military capacity and will be forced to institute a draft or some compensatory government service. Moreover it will require each of it’s citizens to sacrifice something to the war effort. Iran is betting on America being to lazy, apathetic, spoiled, and cowardly to ever unite for the common good as they did during WWII. Evidence can be found in Korea, Vietnam, Lebanon, Bosnia, Somalia, Afghanistan, and Iraq, America lacks the cohesion and backbone for sustained military entanglements. Our inability to cooperate or be submissive to government rule erodes the military options in warfare and it’s ability to conduct orchestrated death to the enemy. Iran believes American’s are to self-interested to ever co-operate with one another, we will never forgo our personal interests in favor of the collective. With our armed forces spread to thin and our people divided Muslim extremists will strike using fear in the hope of exposing our governments inability to protect us. Our fear will topple our system of government in favor of a more military authoritarian style regime, much in line with the former USSR, thereby destroying our democracy. That is if we don’t fall all together, the Western Roman Empire fell because of infighting, a diminished military presence, and a breakdown of strong political leadership in the face of the barbarian hordes. Iran will try to weaken our resolve by seemingly sacrificing itself. Iran will become a martyr for the cause of global Muslim domination. Ahmadinejad wants the become a hero, a martyr, to be honored and remembered forever.

2. Iran would never declare formal war on Europe or the USA, it’s suicide to openly attack NATO, combined no nation or ideology could survive, just look at Saddam Hussein in 1991. What Iran will do however and this can be seen in Iraq, they will declare war on Sunni’s across the world not individual nations/states. Iran will use Hezbollah in just the same fashion they are using against Israel to attack Sunni’s across the world. For instance, Iran could never attack France directly, but it could easily attack the large Muslim population in Paris. In doing so they would cause panic in the streets and a war across the continents forcing the West in get involved in order to anarchy in the streets. Evidence of this fighting can be seen in Iraq right now, where the fighting has less to do with material gains but instead with ending a millennia old blood feud. Iran wants the glory of leading the new Muslim “Church”. By using non-state actors to do it’s fighting for it Iran can remain guilt free and the West could not invade without international condemnation. If NATO was to ever invade Iran with the intention of ending this blood feud Iran would meet them with nuclear weapons thus bringing about mutual assured destruction across most of the world. Iran would win by default.

3. They want nuclear technology to prevent the West from invading and will leverage it was a barging tool in the same fashion that N. Korea is. Iran knows that America is to weak currently to invade and control the Iranian population. Iran intends to blackmail the West into giving it large sums of money in order to prevent nuclear war. This is a two fold solution, 1 Iran gets a new power source, 2 Iran can extort money from the West to support it’s waning religious leaders.

4. Russia is pulling the strings, they hope to instigate WWIII, in doing so they will become the arms dealer to the world. In much the same fashion as the USA was during WWI, the arsenal of democracy as they were known, Russia want’s the Middle East to become a barren waste land so everyone has to turn to Mother Russia and the worlds new energy superpower. Russia under Putin has seen great and radical change and they see their opportunity to return to superpower status. However the means have changed, they no longer wish to attain it militarily but economically through the arms and commodities trade. They plan to follow the US model of international influence. Can’t beat them, buy them.

I have no knowledge of the mind of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad I can only imagine what he is thinking. Don’t forget you can’t run for office in Iran without the blessing to the Supreme Anyone claiming to have some forewarning or secret knowledge is simply lying or is attempting to use it as a means or obtaining political power. Iran is most certainly a threat to the West, a threat that will not go away and will only respond to offers it wants to. The power rests with Iran, the USA is weak and vulnerable, Britain is under siege by Muslim terrorists, France lacks the will for war, Germany is to guilt ridden to ever lead an attack, and Russia seeks to profit off the war. Where will this end, I can assure of this not one person currently running for the office of President of the United States has a clue or is qualified to make such a determination.

We’re screwed….

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